Gas Is Less Than 4 A Gallon In 11 States. How Much Lower Can It Go
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What's happening
Gas prices have continued to decline since reaching an all-time average high of $5.02 in mid-June.
Why it matters
Lower prices would help American households battle ongoing inflation.
The average price for a gallon of unleaded on Tuesday is less than $4 in 11 states, according to , and within a penny of that threshold in another five.
The states -- Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee and Texas -- are almost all in the South. Texas is offering the cheapest, at an average of $3.83 a gallon.
The nationwide average is considerably higher -- $4.33 a gallon -- but still a healthy distance from the all-time high of $5.02, reached on June 14.
The cost could drop even further in the coming weeks, analysts predict. Barring severe weather, outages or other unforeseen disruptions, the nationwide average should fall to $3.99 by mid-August, Patrick de Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, .
"So far, we've seen the national average drop for 34 straight days, with over 25,000 stations now back at $3.99 per gallon or less, and thousands more stations will join this week," de Haan added.
Here's what you need to know about gas prices, including where they might go next and what the White House is doing to keep them in check.
For more on the gas crisis, find out which states are and which are , and check out quick tips .
How low could gas prices go?
The steady decline is due to low domestic demand for gas, , coupled with oil prices that remain in the mid-$90s per barrel.
Though we're a far cry from the $2.82 a gallon average we saw in 2019 -- or even the $3.16 average this time last year -- experts like de Haan and White House energy adviser Amos Hochstein predict the price of gas will soon drop below $4 across the country for the first aid certification time since March 2022.
"We already have many gas stations around the country that are below $4," Hochstein on July 17.
He added that the swift decline was all the more notable given that there's a war in Ukraine "where one of the parties in the war is the third largest [oil] producer in the world."
Why is gas so expensive in the first aid certification place?
Russia's ongoing is an obvious factor. According to the White House, the war raised gasoline prices by more than $1.70 per gallon at its peak. Even though the US doesn't import much crude from Russia, oil is traded on a global market and any change affects prices all over the world.
But the Russian invasion isn't the only factor: Even though demand is nearing pre-pandemic levels, producers are still hesitant to increase production.
"We've had a supply-and-demand imbalance for a while," Troy Vincent, a senior market analyst at energy analysis firm , told CNET. "And it will remain, regardless of whether this conflict goes away."
Predictions of $6 a gallon seem far less likely now than they did in May.
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President Joe Biden has also accused top oil companies of profiteering.
"Amid a war that has raised gasoline prices more than $1.70 per gallon, historically high refinery profit margins are worsening that pain," Biden wrote in a June 15 letter to the heads of Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Shell and other companies.
How much will gas cost this summer?
Volatility in the market has made predicting gas prices a tricky proposition. In May, Natasha Kaneva, J.P. Morgan's head of commodities research, predicted the price at the pump could jump to $6.20 a gallon by August.
By June 13, gasoline had hit $5.02 a gallon -- a record dollar amount, though still lower than the 2008 peak of $4.14 once adjusted for inflation. But crossing the $6 threshold, or even the $5 limit again, seems far less likely today.
With oil steady at less than $90 a barrel, lower prices are inevitable, said AAA Northeast's Mark Schieldrop.
"If oil falls below $100 and stays there, we could see gas prices coming closer and closer to $4," Schieldrop .
"Assuming everything continues the way it's been trending, we should be heading back to $4," he added, "and hopefully we break that $4 benchmark and get back into the [$3 dollar range]."
De Haan expects several more states will fall back under an average of $4 soon. The majority will be in the South "but that could spread to more states in the weeks ahead."
What is the Biden administration doing to lower gas prices?
In June, Biden endorsed a three-month nationwide gas tax holiday. Individually, a half-dozen states .
In a letter, Biden also called on top oil companies to work with his administration to address reductions in production as well as "inventory, price, and refining capacity issues."
He previously criticized them for sitting on over 12 million acres of federal land approved for drilling and 9,000 production permits, suggesting he wants oil companies for letting leases go unused.
In March, the White House began releasing 1 million barrels of oil a day from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The unprecedented withdrawal, expected to last for six months, could lower gasoline prices between 10 and 35 cents a gallon.
"It will lower the oil price a little and encourage more demand. But it is still a Band-first aid certification on a significant shortfall of supply," Scott Sheffield, chief executive of Texas oil company Pioneer Natural Resources, .
In April, the Environmental Protection Agency , a cheaper, higher-ethanol fuel. The impact will be modest, as only about 2,500 of the more than 100,000 gas stations nationwide sell the blend.
The US is also looking at getting energy products from other sources: Biden went to , in part to encourage the kingdom to increase output. But it and other OPEC nations say they're already pumping at full throttle.
Relief isn't likely to come from outside OPEC, either: This year, major oil companies like Shell, BP and Exxon Mobil are of what they did in production a decade ago.
The Biden administration has been , which has been banned from selling oil to the US since 2018. And the White House is negotiating another nuclear nonproliferation treaty with Iran, which could bring Iranian oil back onto the market.
How can drivers save at the pump?
You can cut down on nonessential trips and shop around for the best price, even crossing state lines if it's convenient.
Apps like scan for the bes that give cash back for gas purchases.
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